Retail Credit Risk Forecasting and Stress Testing Analyst

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Job Overview

The incumbent will manage the Retail organization forecast planning function and provisioning, that includes building and maintain the appropriate forecasting models for CCAR, stress test and any other correlated initiative. The incumbent is expected to liaise and manage interactions with product managers, country finance and regional/global functions. He / she ensure forecast are accurate and escalate any issue in advance.

The Forecast and Stress Testing Analyst will work as key part of Retail Credit Risk Team ensuring timely and accurate forecast of Cost of Credit. He/she should ensure that stress testing is implemented across the UAE for all products in line with best practice for the purpose of risk management, compliance with the regulatory framework and meeting enterprise wide stress testing needs. The incumbent should support the ownership and accountability on some of the key elements of the stress testing framework, including, consolidating results, delivering analysis to Senior Management and ensuring that stress testing is meeting the demands of the regulators.

Responsibilities:

• CCAR (Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review)/Dodd-Frank Stress Test – (A US regulatory mandated Stress test for ascertaining capital adequacy). Perform CCAR forecasting; develop, enhance and maintain all CCAR related documentation; attest quarterly CCAR submission. Ensure all Model Risk Management requests are completed within designated timelines.

  
  

• Forecasting of Loan Loss reserves (Expected Credit Losses) on a quarterly basis inline with regional guidance and applicable model usages.

  
  

• Regulator communications and requests on an adhoc basis to be completed within crunched deadlines

  
  

• Detailed understanding of the requirements and stages of model development and approval;.

  
  

• Knowledge of annual validation for all models.

  
  

• Extend existing models for use in processes like Capital Planning, Business Operating Plan, Quarterly Multi Scenario Forecast.

  
  

• Develop, manage, and maintain accurate portfolio forecasting including weekly, Flash, and Plan reporting.

  
  

• Manage monthly outlook and explain variances vs Plan.

  
  

• Maintain strong governance and control oversight of IFRS9 (Local regulator mandated Expected Credit Loss Reserve) process.

  
  

• Oversight and calculation of IFRS 9 provisioning requirement, enforcement of governance standards and methodology as prescribed by the regulators.

  
  

• Promptly highlight variances in portfolio and product trends towards target and prior months which underline risks or opportunities.

  
  

• Prepare early warning tracking and also highlight changes in portfolio through the portfolio quality review decks. Ensure accurate and timely submission of PSEW (Portfolio Stress Early Warning) and tracking of key stress indicators.

  
  

• Ensure Risk generated data reconcile with Financial Control figure. Ensure monthly reconciliation process is in place.

  
  

• Reconciliation and attestation for Loan Loss Reserve balances

  
  

• Create and maintain Stress test application and documentation

  
  

• Work cross-functionally with key business partners to ensure the most accurate forecasting and prediction of portfolio trends in light of change in underlining market dynamics

  
  

Qualifications/ Skills:

• Basic knowledge of key financial indicators and capital ratios.

  
  

• Excellent oral and written communication skills;

  
  

• Programming: SAS, VB, SQL, MS Access, General Query Tools is a must

  
  

• Good understanding of banking products, macroeconomics and financial markets

  
  

Skills:

• Strong interpersonal, analytical, organizational, project management, problem-solving, presentation and verbal and written communication skills.

  
  

• Ability to priorities effectively and meet tight deadlines when required

  
  

• Ability to articulate complex ideas in a clear manner

  
  

• Ability to efficiently communicate with business partners;

  
  

• Ability to work unsupervised.

  
  

• High problem solving orientation

  
  

• High written and verbal communication (English).

  
  

Education:

• Bachelors/ Masters in Statistics, Economics or mathematical discipline with 5 years of experience.

  
  

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Job Family Group: Risk Management

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Job Family:Portfolio Credit Risk Management

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Time Type:Full time

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Most Relevant Skills Analytical Thinking, Constructive Debate, Escalation Management, Industry Knowledge, Policy and Procedure, Policy and Regulation, Process Execution, Product Knowledge, Risk Controls and Monitors, Risk Identification and Assessment.

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Other Relevant Skills For complementary skills, please see above and/or contact the recruiter.

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